P10 1/2 Full Color Front Open LED Digital Video Display For Wall
P10 1/2 Full Color Front Open LED Digital Video Display For Wall LED segment 2018 performance growth rate is expected to be high The recent sharp decline in the LED sector, especially the continuous decline of Sanan Optoelectronics has greatly shaken investor confidence in the sector, Sanan...
P10 1/2 Full Color Front Open LED Digital Video Display For Wall
LED segment 2018 performance growth rate is expected to be high
The recent sharp decline in the LED sector, especially the continuous decline of Sanan Optoelectronics has greatly shaken investor confidence in the sector, Sanan Optoelectronics dropped by 24%, Liad's high dropped by 18%, Huacan photoelectric highs fell 38%, Zhou Ming Technology has been consolidating for more than a year, the country's high-star optoelectronics fell 35%, many investors are asking how the LED board in the end?
1) Investors asked whether the performance in the fourth quarter is not very good, is it lower than expected?
Sanan Optoelectronics, Liad, Huacan Optoelectronics, and Chau Ming Technology have all announced 2017 results. From the perspective of our tracking, they are all in line with expectations and are definitely not lower than expected.
2) What is the industry climate in the first quarter?
Recently, many core companies such as LED chips, packaging, and applications are receiving research. From a number of research and feedback, the current situation in chip, package, and application is very good. There is no problem in the prosperity of the LED industry. It is the best response to all doubts.
3) What is the industry climate in 2018-2020?
From the expected performance of the leading companies, we can see the industry prosperity. We expect Sanan Optoelectronics to increase by more than 40% in 2018, Huacan Optoelectronics to increase by 60%, Liadre to increase by 50%, and Saline Technology to increase by 50% from the previous year. The company also has a good growth, and the certainty is relatively high. It can be seen from the performance expectations of the leading companies in all sectors of the industry that the business climate in 2018 is still very good.
From the point of view of the downstream sub-industries of LED, the sustainability of the LED industry is also very good. The compound growth rate of the industry in the next three years is about 20%.
4) Has the LED chip dropped in value recently?
In the fourth quarter, Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. and Huacan Optoelectronics did not cut their prices again. The current overall price of the industry is very stable. The chip price trend will also be relatively stable throughout the year, and the supply and demand relationship will continue to be better than the current market pessimism.
5) Does the graphite disk incident affect industry expansion?
We believe that the reconciliation of the graphite plate incident is a matter of time, and that leading companies have already found alternative suppliers. If China Micro and veeco continue to fail to reconcile, the overall event will be beneficial to leading companies!
6) Why fall?
More we believe is influenced by market sentiment and consumer electronics sentiment, and irrational decline is definitely a good opportunity!
7) How good is the LED growth? How low is the valuation?
On the whole, LED can be said to be one of the best sub-sectors in the boom of the electronic sector in 2018. The industry has a high degree of economic prosperity. The growth rate of the upper middle and lower reaches of the leading group is expected to be high, and the valuation is extremely low. It can be said that the current In the highly cost-effective industry, all sorts of messy rumors in the fall have also aggravated the pessimism in the market, and this provides investors with an in-depth understanding of the development of the industry and provided an excellent time to open positions! We continue to be optimistic about Sanan Optoelectronics, Liad, Huacan Optoelectronics, Chau Ming Technology, etc.
LED supply and demand will be long-term optimistic! With the current market fears will form a clear expected difference!
1, LED industry demand remains high boom, annual compound growth rate reached 20%
1) The penetration rate of LED lighting is already around 40%. Incandescent lamps above 15 watts have been banned on the mainland. The price of LED lighting terminals is close to or even lower than that of energy-saving lamps. In the next few years, the penetration rate of LED lighting is rapidly raised to more than 70%. Certainty events, due to the limited space for price decline, LED lighting industry growth rate will stabilize at around 20% in the next few years. According to Sanan and Mulinsen analysis, the current global LED penetration rate is only 20-30%, then the next few years Industry growth is expected to be higher;
2) The small-pitch LED market has a certain scale, and its compound growth rate will be about 50% in the next three years. It will obviously contribute to the growth of LED industry by several percentage points every year.
3) The automotive lighting has a certain scale, and its compound growth rate of about 30% in the next few years will significantly contribute to the growth of the LED industry by several percentage points each year;
4) The landscape lighting has been upgraded from the building to the nightscape project of the entire city, and the overall growth of the LED industry is also very obvious;
5) Mini LED and micro LED provide infinite imagination.
2, LED chip supply release will be better than expected.
1) At present, the reshuffling of the LED industry has completely ended. In the second half of 2016, the supply and demand of the LED chip industry ushered in a historic inflection point, and the industry competition pattern has been set. From the perspective of current plans for expansion of various companies in the next few years, LED chip expansion is mainly Focused on domestic Sanan, Huacan, Aoyang, etc., the global annual production capacity increase is only 20%, and in the next few years, the demand side will grow at least 20% each year. In the next few years, the LED chip industry will be in short supply;
2) From 2009 to 2010, the global manufacturers significantly expanded the production of LED lamps K465 and TS models. The current LED production capacity reached 40%. Due to the high number of years and low efficiency, it has gradually been phased out. Huacan Optoelectronics has recently announced the phase-out of Wuhan. The production capacity is the main platform for expansion from 2009 to 2010. Subsequent withdrawal of these machines will continue to improve the supply and demand relationship of the LED chip industry.
3) In the fourth quarter of 2017, leading companies led by Sanan Optoelectronics and Huacan Optoelectronics took the initiative to lower their prices due to competitive tactics. As a result, many small and medium-sized companies that have just begun to make profits have faced a loss situation, and many have postponed or even directly cancelled expansion plans. The strategic choice of leading companies has also greatly inhibited the overall pace of capacity expansion in the industry;
4) Although the reconciliation of the graphite plate incident is only a matter of time, and related leading companies have already found alternative suppliers, the delay in the resolution of the graphite plate event will only affect the pace of production expansion of the second and third tier companies in the industry, and will not affect the industry's leading production cadence. Therefore, it is also a good industry leader.
5) The main forces of this round of expansion are domestic leading Sanan, Huacan, and Aoyang. These companies themselves have experienced the painful process of reshuffling the industry from 2010 to 2015, so they are themselves in a new round of expansion cycle. All will be very rational and orderly, and the blind expansion will not occur again. This will also help the overall supply and demand of the LED chip industry in the next few years.
3. We believe that the downstream demand of LED will still maintain a high degree of boom, the upstream expansion is limited and rational and orderly, but also facing the gradual withdrawal of backward production capacity, the strategic competition of leading enterprises and supply bottlenecks of key equipment, the future of LED chip industry The relationship between supply and demand in a few years will surely be better than the current pessimistic expectations of the market, leading companies will benefit in the long term!
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